Divx (DIVX), the producer of the DivX Player, is going public during the week of September 18th. JP Morgan is underwriting the deal. It will be the first company related to online video sharing to go public - ever. Is the DivX IPO a good deal? I walked through the to answer that question. Market Opportunity DivX Inc describes itself as being in the business of providing video compression codecs used for delivering high-quality video online.

We create products and services designed to improve the experience of media. Our first product offering was a video compression-decompression software library, or codec, which has been actively sought out and downloaded by consumers over 180 million times in the last four years, including over 50 million times during the last twelve months. We have since built on the success of our codec with other consumer software, including the DivX Player application.

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During the second quarter of 2006, we distributed over 15 million copies of the DivX Player application to consumers from our website, DivX.com, which averaged over five million unique visitors per month during that same period. The DivX codec is the heart of DivX's business. Consumers download the player so they can play videos online.

The fact that DivX has been downloaded 180 million times is very impressive. Download.com lists it as the as of the week ending August 27th - the top 3 downloads title are all spyware removers -,,. The truth is that it is also somewhat troubling, because consumers often use the player to view pirated content. In fact, DivX admits this is a major risk to its business in its prospectus: We have also been asked by content owners to stop the display or hosting of copyrighted materials on our websites pursuant to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. Many consumers download the player specifically to view content encoded in DivX as opposed to the other way around. As big media goes after pirated content, there will be less pirated content and there is a risk that consumers will stop downloading the player.

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Business Model DivX describes itself as being in the business of providing video compression codecs used for delivering high-quality video online. At a very high level, DivX makes money from 1) installing Google ToolBar on computers when consumers download the DivX player and 2) fees paid by consumer electronics manufacturers who license the DivX codec to embed in their DVD players. 1) C onsumers download the DivX player for free, and DivX makes money by bundling the Google Toolbar with its application.

DivX writes that Google accounted for 20% of its revenues in the first half of 2006 or roughly $5 million. Assuming 25 million downloads during the first half of 2006, that means DivX earned an average of $.20 per download of DivX Player. DivX writes, The Google agreement accounted for approximately 20% and 15% of our total revenue in the first half of 2006 and in the full year ended December 31, 2005, respectively. In the first half of 2006 and in the full years 2005, 2004 and 2003, we derived 20%, 15%, 17% and 28%, respectively, of our revenues from the inclusion of advertisements and third party software applications in our software products.

This part of its business carries certain risks, because the more successful and popular Google becomes, the less money DivX makes. The major risk is market saturation of the Google Toolbar. For instance, like many people, I already have the Google Toolbar installed on my computer. That means, DivX is not paid when I download the DivX player since it would be a duplicate install.

As more people have Google Toolbars, revenue from Google Toolbar to decline. Any decline in the popularity of either our products or Google's products among consumers or market saturation by these products could result in a decrease in revenue under this agreement.In particular, the Mozilla Firefox Browser may not achieve widespread adoption by consumers and may lead to fewer downloads and activations than past versions of Google's software included with our products. Market saturation of the Google Toolbar is a major risk.If we assume that revenue from Google declined to zero (from $5 million during the first half of 2006), then DivX would go from being a moderately profitable business to a breakeven business. We can see that DivX generated $6.6 million in operating profit in the first half. Stripping out the Google revenue, DivX would only have generated $1.5 million in profits in the first 6 months of 2006. In fact, I would venture to go as far as to say that DivX as a business would have seen much slower revenue growth without Google. After all, the company generated $14 million in the first half of 2005 and $27 million in the first half of 2006.